Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness

Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya Shearer; Andrew J Black; Allen Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon

In readiness for this challenge, Australia has drawn on approaches developed over many years to prepare for influenza pandemics (6) and rapidly produced a national COVID-19 pandemic plan (7) . The plan has reoriented relevant strategies towards this new pathogen, based on emerging understanding of its anticipated transmissibility and severity, which are the determinants of clinical impact (8) . Early imposition of stringent border measures, high levels of testing, active case-finding and quarantine of contacts have all bought time to reinforce public health and clinical capacity. However, a recent influx of cases among travelers returning from countries with rapidly growing epidemics has been associated with establishment of community transmission in several Australian states. As of 31 st March 2020, 4,359 cases had been reported, with 18 deaths (9) .