Quantifying transmissibility of COVID-19 and impact of intervention within long-term health care facilities

Stockdale, J. E.; Anderson, S. C.; Edwards, A. M.; Iyaniwura, S. I.; Mulberry, N.; Otterstatter, M. C.; Janjua, N. Z.; Coombs, D.; Colijn, C.; Irvine, M. A.

Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are particularly variable in the context of transmission within locations such as long-term health care (LTHC) facilities. We sought to characterise the heterogeneity of R0 across known outbreaks within these facilities. We used a unique comprehensive dataset of all outbreaks that have occurred within LTHC facilities in British Columbia, Canada. We estimated R0 with a Bayesian hierarchical dynamic model of susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered individuals, that incorporates heterogeneity of R0 between facilities. We further compared these estimates to those obtained with standard methods that utilize the exponential growth rate and maximum likelihood. The total size of an outbreak varied dramatically, with a range of attack rates of 2%-86%. The Bayesian analysis provides more constrained overall estimates of R0 = 2.83 (90% CrI [credible interval] 0.25-7.19) than standard methods, with a range within facilities of 0.66-10.06. We further estimated that intervention led to 67% (56%-73%) of all cases being averted within the LTHC facilities. Understanding the risks and impact of intervention are essential in planning during the ongoing global pandemic, particularly in high-risk environments such as LTHC facilities.