Author: Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya Shearer; Andrew J Black; Allen Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon
Title: Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: emodr41j_26
Snippet: As can be seen from these simulated scenarios, case isolation and contact quarantine alone will be insufficient to keep clinical requirements of COVID-19 cases within plausibly achievable expansion of health system capacity, even if very high and likely unrealistic levels of case finding can be maintained. We therefore explored the effects of additional social distancing measures that reduced input reproduction numbers of 25 and 33% on ICU requir.....
Document: As can be seen from these simulated scenarios, case isolation and contact quarantine alone will be insufficient to keep clinical requirements of COVID-19 cases within plausibly achievable expansion of health system capacity, even if very high and likely unrealistic levels of case finding can be maintained. We therefore explored the effects of additional social distancing measures that reduced input reproduction numbers of 25 and 33% on ICU requirements in relation to these same clinical care capacity constraints (Figure 4 ). Simulations assume ongoing application of measures of fixed effectiveness, which is also unlikely to be consistently achievable over an extended duration.
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