Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness

Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya Shearer; Andrew J Black; Allen Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon

Our findings are consistent with a recently published model that relates the clinical burden of COVID-19 cases to global health sector capacity, characterised at high level. In unmitigated epidemics, demand rapidly outstrips supply, even in high income settings, by a factor of seven (14) . As hospital bed capacity is strongly correlated with income, this factor is greatly increased in low and middle-income country settings, where underlying health status is also likely to be poorer (14) . There is also marked variability globally in the definition of 'intensive care', even within high-income countries where the descriptor covers many levels of ventilatory and other support. The authors concur with our conclusion that social distancing measures to suppress disease are required to save lives. They also acknowledge that the marked social and economic consequences of such measures will limit their ongoing application, particularly in the settings where health systems are least able to cope with disease burden (14) .