Using web search queries to monitor influenza-like illness: an exploratory retrospective analysis, Netherlands, 2017/18 influenza season

Schneider, Paul P; van Gool, Christel JAW; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Hooiveld, Mariëtte; Donker, Gé A; Barnett, David J; Paget, John

BACKGROUND: Despite the early development of Google Flu Trends in 2009, standards for digital epidemiology methods have not been established and research from European countries is scarce. AIM: In this article, we study the use of web search queries to monitor influenza-like illness (ILI) rates in the Netherlands in real time. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis, we simulated the weekly use of a prediction model for estimating the then-current ILI incidence across the 2017/18 influenza season solely based on Google search query data. We used weekly ILI data as reported to The European Surveillance System (TESSY) each week, and we removed the then-last 4 weeks from our dataset. We then fitted a prediction model based on the then-most-recent search query data from Google Trends to fill the 4-week gap (‘Nowcasting’). Lasso regression, in combination with cross-validation, was applied to select predictors and to fit the 52 models, one for each week of the season. RESULTS: The models provided accurate predictions with a mean and maximum absolute error of 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.09–1.75) and 6.36 per 10,000 population. The onset, peak and end of the epidemic were predicted with an error of 1, 3 and 2 weeks, respectively. The number of search terms retained as predictors ranged from three to five, with one keyword, ‘griep’ (‘flu’), having the most weight in all models. DISCUSSION: This study demonstrates the feasibility of accurate, real-time ILI incidence predictions in the Netherlands using Google search query data.