Estimating the Efficacy of Traffic Blockage and Quarantine for the Epidemic Caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19)

Deqiang Li; Zhicheng Liu; Qinghe Liu; Zefei Gao; Junkai Zhu; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang

Both the quarantine factors and traffic blockage factors are taken between 0 to 1. In Fig 2, the current quarantine factor of Hubei province is estimaed to be 0.405, which means around 40.5% of suceptibles who are close contacting with are in quarantine. If we increase the factor by 0.01, the peak number of infections will decrease by 5.53%. For the other provinces outside Hubei, the current quarantine factor is estimated to be 0.285, if we incease the factor by 0.01, the peak number of infections will decrease by 14.64%. On the other hand, when ߝ is close to 1, all the population is isolated from others, the peak value will decrease by 89.68%. However, when ߝ tends to 0, all the population flows are control free, and the peak value will increase by 20.4%.