Modeling risk of infectious diseases: a case of Coronavirus outbreak in four countries

Md. Mazharul Islam; Md. Monirul Islam; Md. Jamal Hossain; Faroque Ahmed

Some interesting features of this index are worthwhile to mention. The index says that there is a risk of Coronavirus spreading even though the travel specific risk component becomes zero. That means even if a country imposes air travel restriction internationally, the risk of transmission still exists. The area specific component of the index actually portrays the dynamics of infectious disease spreading influenced by mobility and interaction among people. One of the important implications of the area specific component is that restricting international movement is not sufficient to contain the risk of Coronavirus spreading in particular and infectious diseases in general. Internal restriction is also important to suppress transmission risk in an area which is exactly what the current situation says. In that sense, we expect that our index has the higher probability of mimicking the current situation of Coronavirus.