Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness

Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya Shearer; Andrew J Black; Allen Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon

This study reports on the use of a clinical care pathways model that represents the capacity of the Australian health system. This framework was initially developed for influenza pandemic preparedness (10) , and has been modified to estimate health care requirements for COVID-19 patients and inform needed service expansion. The ability of different sectors to meet anticipated demand was assessed by modelling plausible COVID-19 epidemic scenarios, overlaid on available capacity and models of patient flow and care delivery. An unmitigated outbreak is anticipated to completely overwhelm the system. Given realistic limits on capacity expansion, these models have made the case for ongoing case targeted measures, combined with broader social restrictions, to reduce transmission and 'flatten the curve' of the local epidemic to preserve health sector continuity.