Diverse computer simulation models provide unified lessons on university operation during a pandemic

Ghaffarzadegan, N.; Childs, L. M.; Tauber, U. C.

Despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, many US universities decided to open their campuses, invite students to the dorms, and hold in-person instruction, relying on various policies for mitigating the chance of experiencing an outbreak. The policies cover a wide range including on-campus testing, contact tracing, isolation and quarantine, encouraging mask use and social distancing, and redesigning class environments to provide enough space between individuals. The authors of this viewpoint have been involved in an intense 5-month modeling of the spread of COVID-19 in universities, applying various modeling techniques, including network analysis, system dynamics, differential-equation modeling, agent-based stochastic simulations, and statistical approaches. For several reasons, including the financial viability of academic institutions and the social and pedagogical benefits of having students on campus, many universities decided to follow the path of opening campuses and providing the option of in-person or hybrid classes. In preparation for reopening of in-person instruction, academic institutions across the country spent significant time and effort to keep their campus and classrooms safe. The simulation models show that tests are necessary, but in order to effectively contain the disease, several stringent criteria should be met about how testing is implemented;otherwise, testing and isolation are ineffective to contain sizeable outbreaks. First, testing of the majority of the university community on arrival to the community is crucial in order to minimize importation and, therefore, slow down the early spread of the disease. Second, comprehensive testing of everyone, including faculty and staff members, should continue for the duration of the academic term at a high frequency;otherwise, the initial missed cases are enough to cause a substantial outbreak. However, a significant portion of the overall university community faculty and staff members are much more likely to fall in high-risk populations. The spread of the disease among students and the broader community comes with high likelihood of fatalities among this population. Universities must accept that the implementation of policies sufficient to prevent or curtail an outbreak will be challenging, costly, and fraught with setbacks.