Estimating the impact of mobility patterns on COVID-19 infection rates in 11 European countries

Patrick Bryant; Arne Elofsson

In Figure 1 , for Spain and Sweden, and Figure S1 , all eleven countries, our estimates of daily cases, deaths and the evaluation are shown. According to the model, most countries appear to have their epidemic under control, with R 0 values of either close to one or below one ( Table 1) . The most successful countries in terms of reducing R 0 are France, Italy, and Spain -all with R 0 below 0.5. Further, UK, Switzerland and Austria also seem to have R 0 clearly below 1 and Germany just below 1. However, less successful are the Scandinavian countries Sweden (R 0 ≈2.3), Denmark (R 0 ≈1.4) and Norway (R 0 ≈1.3). Remarkable is that Sweden's R 0 value is still close to that of the estimated initial mean used in the model (2.79). This can primarily be explained by the small change in the mobility data regarding Grocery and Pharmacy in Sweden.