Method for Active Pandemic Curve Management (MAPCM)

Willem G Odendaal

3) Available Control Mechanism: As the governing body of the population, we are able to relax mitigation on any segment on any day. Each segment will be infected at rate R os until mitigation for that segment is relaxed and it falls back to the higher infection rate, R oh . 4) Infection Rate: If left at the initial mitigated state, the virus can infect the population of a segment to a maximum of I %s of the particular segment's population. If mitigation measures are lifted so R oh takes effect, the virus will infect the segment's population to a maximum of I %h or I %m . In general, I %h > I %m > I %s . Again it is assumed that I % = 1 − 1 Ro . 5) Other Rules and Limitations: We are only able to switch each segment once or not at all. Once at R oh , the rate cannot be switched back to R os . (Again, this is merely to frame the example, and is not true in practice.) Figure 8 shows the results for examples in which the method is applied using these three reproductive numbers. In Figure 8 (a) the infection rate can go up to I %m and in Figure 8(b) to I %h . The need for the more stringent mitigation measures were to buy more time to reduce the amplitude of the controlled curve, which cannot go beyond the curve with R os . Figure 9 shows a few different implementations. In Figures 9(a) and 9 (b) the timings for relaxing segment mitigation were chosen to make better use of the delay introduced by stringent mitigation. Dividing the population into 6 segments has now made it possible to reduce the amplitude of the controlled curve significantly, even when the infection rate reaches the high All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.