Author: Edward De Brouwer; Daniele Raimondi; Yves Moreau
Title: Modeling the COVID-19 outbreaks and the effectiveness of the containment measures adopted across countries Document date: 2020_4_4
ID: brurrmi4_15
Snippet: where α * It [i] is the non-normalized proportion of Italian cases in age bin i, α SK [i] the proportion of South Korean cases in age bin i and δ[i] are the proportion of the corresponding age bin in the total demographics of the respective country. The normalized proportion of Italian cases α[i] is obtained by dividing by the sum of α * [i] over all age bins. They are reported in orange on Figure 5 . In a second stage, we compute the expect.....
Document: where α * It [i] is the non-normalized proportion of Italian cases in age bin i, α SK [i] the proportion of South Korean cases in age bin i and δ[i] are the proportion of the corresponding age bin in the total demographics of the respective country. The normalized proportion of Italian cases α[i] is obtained by dividing by the sum of α * [i] over all age bins. They are reported in orange on Figure 5 . In a second stage, we compute the expected number of cases in Italy based on the number of deaths and use it to further adjust the age distribution. We use South Korea death rates per age bins to infer the number of closed cases. We compute the expected number of cases per age bin by dividing the number of deaths by the fatality rate measured in South Korea:
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