Author: Dayton G Thorpe; Kelsey Lyberger
Title: Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 7sexfkxq_5
Snippet: The model estimates the baseline reproduction number of the virus without intervention, R_0, and the impact of the considered interventions. It fits one value for each of these variables across all populations simultaneously. The impact of any given intervention is the same for all populations. Most of the interventions were implemented in Europe before the United States. Therefore, the model estimates the impact of these interventions mostly bas.....
Document: The model estimates the baseline reproduction number of the virus without intervention, R_0, and the impact of the considered interventions. It fits one value for each of these variables across all populations simultaneously. The impact of any given intervention is the same for all populations. Most of the interventions were implemented in Europe before the United States. Therefore, the model estimates the impact of these interventions mostly based on the trajectory of the epidemic in Europe. Using the number of fatalities as of a given time, we can infer the number of infections in the past, and extrapolate them to the present using the fitted reproduction numbers under different policy regimes. The model does not use the reported number of infections. This approach differs from the CRT's model in [4] , which is a detailed SIR model. Instead, this model more closely matches that of the UW IHME [5] , which forecasts exponential growth rates after different policies are implemented based on historical growth rates in countries and states that previously implemented similar policies.
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