Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail

Wolfgang Bock; Barbara Adamik; Marek Bawiec; Viktor Bezborodov; Marcin Bodych; Jan Pablo Burgard; Thomas Goetz; Tyll Krueger; Agata Migalska; Barbara Pabjan; Tomasz Ozanski; Ewaryst Rafajlowicz; Wojciech Rafajlowicz,; Ewa Skubalska-Rafajlowicz; Sara Ryfczynska; Ewa Szczurek; Piotr Szymanski

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . and drastic countermeasures similar to those put in action in China is ultimately required to reduce social contacts outside households and slow down the progression of the epidemic. If social distancing countermeasures are too weak there is a high risk of collapse of the public health system within a very short period of time. If contact reduction is not kept in force until disease extinction a second epidemic outbreak may result 8 . Therefore, in order to control the epidemics it is nessesary to wait until it gets extinct. The application of an epidemic management plan based on a flawed strategy of herd immunity may easily lead to an uncontrollable epidemic. We also strongly advise combining social distancing and contact related countermeasures with an extensive testing strategy including individuals with characteristic symptoms but unknown contact history.