Author: Yun-ting He; Hao He; Jing Zhai; Xiao-jin Wang; Bing-shun Wang
Title: Moving-average based index to timely evaluate the current epidemic situation after COVID-19 outbreak Document date: 2020_3_26
ID: bcde0u7u_38
Snippet: According to previous estimates of the SARS epidemic peak in Hong Kong, different studies have yielded different results. Peiris suggested that on April 25, the epidemic in Hong Kong showed signs of peaking (Enserink 2013) . While Lee concluded that the epidemic peaked at the end of March (Lee 2003) and Xu estimated that the epidemic would peak 14 days (on April 14) after the start date (on March 31). It can be seen that the conclusions of previo.....
Document: According to previous estimates of the SARS epidemic peak in Hong Kong, different studies have yielded different results. Peiris suggested that on April 25, the epidemic in Hong Kong showed signs of peaking (Enserink 2013) . While Lee concluded that the epidemic peaked at the end of March (Lee 2003) and Xu estimated that the epidemic would peak 14 days (on April 14) after the start date (on March 31). It can be seen that the conclusions of previous prediction models are quite different, and it's difficult to determine which one has a higher degree of reliability when it is applied to epidemic prediction. But now we can see that the epidemic peaked on April 14 is the hypothesis closest to the actual situation, and also the hypothesis closest to our conclusion.
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