Author: Weituo Zhang
Title: Estimating the presymptomatic transmission of COVID19 using incubation period and serial interval data Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: nkhjona0_15
Snippet: In conclusion, we estimated the fraction and timing of COVID19 presymptomatic transmissions. Through several different approaches (method of moments estimation, expected negative serial interval incidence, and maximum convolution likelihood estimation), we achieve largely consistent results: a large portion of COVID19 transmissions may happen presymptomatically. The percentage is roughly 19.7% when there is no effective control, and can go up to .....
Document: In conclusion, we estimated the fraction and timing of COVID19 presymptomatic transmissions. Through several different approaches (method of moments estimation, expected negative serial interval incidence, and maximum convolution likelihood estimation), we achieve largely consistent results: a large portion of COVID19 transmissions may happen presymptomatically. The percentage is roughly 19.7% when there is no effective control, and can go up to 79.7% when control measures effectively reducing transmissions after symptom onsets are performed.
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