Author: Rafal Bogacz
Title: Estimating the probability of New Zealand regions being free from COVID-19 using a stochastic SEIR model Document date: 2020_4_21
ID: ab71pz6v_1
Snippet: As the number of new cases of COVID-19 declines in New Zealand, the government is faced with a decision when to reduce the restrictions and release the country or its parts from lockdown. To assist in such a decision, it may be helpful to know the estimate for a probability of a particular region being free of COVID-19. This report presents a method for estimating such a probability on the basis of a simple model and presents results for individu.....
Document: As the number of new cases of COVID-19 declines in New Zealand, the government is faced with a decision when to reduce the restrictions and release the country or its parts from lockdown. To assist in such a decision, it may be helpful to know the estimate for a probability of a particular region being free of COVID-19. This report presents a method for estimating such a probability on the basis of a simple model and presents results for individual District Health Boards (DHB) in New Zealand.
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