Error Rates in SARS-CoV-2 Testing Examined with Bayesian Inference

Bentley, P. M.

A literature review on SARS-CoV-2 reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is used to construct a clinical test confusion matrix, including false positives and false negatives. A simple correction of bulk test data results is demonstrated, then the required sensitivity and specificity are explored for the societal needs. It is indicated that many of the people with mild symptoms and positive test results are unlikely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 in some regions. It is also concluded that current and foreseen alternative tests cannot be used to clear patients, students or workers as being non-infected. Recommendations are given that regional authorities must establish a programme to monitor operational test characteristics before launching large scale testing; and that large scale testing for tracing infection networks in some regions is not viable, but may be possible in a focused way that does not exceed the working capacity of the competent expert laboratories.