Global COVID‐19 Transmission and Mortality—Influence of Human Development, Climate, and Climate Variability on Early Phase of the Pandemic

Thazhathedath Hariharan, Hariprasad; Surendran, Anish Thekkumkara; Haridasan, Retheesh Kollerazhikathu; Venkitaraman, Sriram; Robert, Dennis; Narayanan, Sorna P.; Mammen, Pratheesh C.; Siddharth, Selva Raja; Kuriakose, Sekhar L.

Many of the respiratory pathogens show seasonal patterns and association with environmental factors. In this article, we conducted a cross‐sectional analysis of the influence of environmental factors, including climate variability, along with development indicators on the differential global spread and fatality of COVID‐19 during its early phase. Global climate data we used are monthly averaged gridded data sets of temperature, humidity and temperature anomaly. We used Human Development Index (HDI) to account for all nation wise socioeconomic factors that can affect the reporting of cases and deaths and build a stepwise negative binomial regression model. In the absence of a development indicator, all environmental variables excluding the specific humidity have a significant association with the spread and mortality of COVID‐19. Temperature has a weak negative association with COVID‐19 mortality. However, HDI is shown to confound the effect of temperature on the reporting of the disease. Temperature anomaly, which is being regarded as a global warming indicator, is positively associated with the pandemic's spread and mortality. Viewing newer infectious diseases like SARS‐CoV‐2 from the perspective of climate variability has a lot of public health implications, and it necessitates further research.