Modeling Covid-19 dynamics for real-time estimates and projections: an application to Albanian data

Erida Gjini

Quantitatively, if the control measures continue with the same rhythm, this model with its best-fitting parameters, based on the data up to March 28, 2020, predicts that the peak of the epidemic in Albania will be reached on day 36 after the first detected case, with 50%CI (32,45) and 95% CI(26, 121). The magnitude of the number of active confirmed cases at the peak will be around 302 with 50% CI(242,498) and 95%CI(180,1.1 × 10 5 ), thus still with substantial uncertainty. The total number of Covid-19 cases, including those documented/confirmed and those not-confirmed (asymptomatic) will be 1903 with 50%CI (1386,3674) and 95% CI (930, 5.4 × 10 5 ). While all these predictions are to be taken with caution, since we don't have yet a clear final signature of drop in cases, they indicate some reason for optimism in the possibilities of limited epidemic size of SARS-Cov2 in Albania. If the effect of control measures continues with this trend, the epidemic projections for Albania suggested by the model appear manageable. Under constant control instead, the data suggest that current efforts have reduced transmission by 40% (see Table 2 ), but if this remains at this level, it is not sufficient to limit the number of cases in the short term (see Supplementary Figures S1-S3 ).