Modeling COVID-19 latent prevalence to assess a public health intervention at a state and regional scale

Philip J. Turk; Shih-Hsiung Chou; Marc A. Kowalkowski; Pooja P. Palmer; Jennifer S. Priem; Melanie D. Spencer; Yhenneko J. Taylor; Andrew D. McWilliams

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.20063420 doi: medRxiv preprint Using these hazard ratios to compute estimates of R0 from March 26 onward ( -),+,!-), we derive 1.34 and 1.33 for NC and the CRI, respectively. This suggests the COVID-19 outbreak is rapidly decelerating in NC and the CRI after the aggressive public health intervention. 6 show plots of the three fitted models' infection curves for NC and the CRI, respectively, out to April 7. The behavior in the two plots is the same. The SIR-Post model clearly demonstrates a lack-of-fit to the data. For the SIR-Int model, we note the hinge point induces a change of behavior from March 26 onward. The dotted orange line represents SIR-Pre forecast projections from March 26 onward. Note they are much larger than the actual data.