Modeling COVID-19: Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey

ibrahim Halil Aslan; Mahir Demir; Michael Morgan Wise; Suzanne Lenhart

We used parameters in Table 1 for 15-day forecasting. Figure 4 shows the estimated number of infected cases for 80 days. The plot on the left depicts the estimated number of exposed and the right plot depicts the estimated number of reported (infected) cases I q . As it can be seen, the number of individuals in each of these classes tends to zero, which implies that the outbreak is almost over, and so new cases may not be recorded in Hubei. As it can be seen from the change in infected class, the outbreak reaches its peak about February 9, 2020. The infected class I also shows how many people were out with no symptoms or mild symptoms during the outbreak. Figure 4 : The plot on the left depicts the number of exposed cases and the plot on the right depicts the number of infected cases with initial conditions S(0) = 59, 000, 000, S q (0) = 0, E(0) = 142, I(0) = 69, I q (0) = 258, R(0) = 0 for 80 days In Figure 5 , the plot on the left shows the estimated number of cumulative reported (infected) cases and the right . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.