Modeling COVID-19: Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey

ibrahim Halil Aslan; Mahir Demir; Michael Morgan Wise; Suzanne Lenhart

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https: //doi.org/10.1101 //doi.org/10. /2020 high PRCC values in the dynamics of the outbreak. Therefore, it is of interest to study how the number of cumulative infected cases changes when s q , i q , r, and β are varied and other parameters are held the same as in Table 1 and the initial condition same as before. Figure 6 shows the results of these experiments, how the number of cumulative cases changes for different values of s q , i q , r, and β. It is also important to analyze how R 0 value varies with β and i q . Thus, we vary β in the range [1, 10] and i q in the range [0.1, 4] while keeping all other parameters the same in Table 1 . Figure 7 shows the boxplot of β and i q . We observe i q affects R 0 in a wider range compare to β. Thus, the range of R 0 will change roughly between 3 and 8. In addition, the value of R 0 drops below 1 when i q is above 5.1.