Author: ibrahim Halil Aslan; Mahir Demir; Michael Morgan Wise; Suzanne Lenhart
Title: Modeling COVID-19: Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: fsjze3t2_5
Snippet: In this study, we start by developing a SEIQR type deterministic model which uses a system of ordinary differential equations to analyze the dynamics of the outbreak, in particular highlighting the effect of testing and the effects of quarantine and social distancing in Hubei. We present estimates of the basic reproductive number R 0 of COVID-19 in Hubei and perform a sensitivity analysis to deduce which parameters play significant roles in the t.....
Document: In this study, we start by developing a SEIQR type deterministic model which uses a system of ordinary differential equations to analyze the dynamics of the outbreak, in particular highlighting the effect of testing and the effects of quarantine and social distancing in Hubei. We present estimates of the basic reproductive number R 0 of COVID-19 in Hubei and perform a sensitivity analysis to deduce which parameters play significant roles in the transmission and control of the outbreak in Hubei. In addition, we also provide 15-day forecasts of the fatality rate of the outbreak, the number of cases, and the number of deaths depending on the data (Chinese physicians, 2020; Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE, 2020; World Health Organization, 2020b) and outputs of our SEIQR model. Finally, building on knowledge obtained from the Hubei outbreak, we apply our model to the outbreak in Turkey. We forecast the peak of the outbreak and the total number of cases/deaths in Turkey, utilizing the extant COVID-19 data from Turkey ((Ministry of Health (Turkey), 2020)).
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