Stochastic filtering based transmissibility estimation of novel coronavirus

Bansal, Rahul; Kumar, Amit; Singh, Amit Kumar; Kumar, Sandeep

In this study, the transmissibility estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has been presented using the generalized fractional-order calculus (FOC) based extended Kalman filter (EKF) and wavelet transform (WT) methods. Initially, the state-space representation for the bats-hosts-reservoir-people (BHRP) model is obtained using a set of fractional order differential equations for the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model. Afterward, the EKF and Kronecker product based WT methods have been applied to the discrete vector representation of the BHRP model. The main advantage of using EKF in this system is that it considers both the process and the measurement noise, which gives better accuracy and probable states, which are the Markovian (processes). The importance of proposed models lies in the fact that these models can accommodate conventional EKF and WT methods as their special cases. Further, we have compared the estimated number of contagious people and recovered people with the actual number of infectious people and recovered people in India and China.