Five-Year Residual Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model for Statin Treated Patients with Known Cardiovascular Disease.

Wong, Nathan D; Zhao, Yanglu; Xiang, Pin; Coll, Blai; López, J Antonio G

Despite statin therapy, many patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) still suffer from ASCVD events. Predictors of residual ASCVD risk are not well-delineated. We aimed to develop an ASCVD risk prediction model for patients with prior ASCVD on statin use. We utilized statin-treated patients with ASCVD from the AIM-HIGH trial cohort. A 5-year risk score for subsequent ASCVD events with known ASCVD was developed using Cox regression, including potential risk factors with age, sex, and race forced in the model. Internal discrimination and calibration were evaluated. We included 3,271 patients with ASCVD (85.4% male, mean age 63.6 years, 65% on moderate and 24% on high-intensity statin) with complete risk factor data and mean follow-up of 4.18 years. Overall, the estimated 5-year ASCVD risk was 21.1%: 10.2% of patients had a 5-year risk of >30%, and 38.8% had risk of between 20-30%. In the model, male sex, hemoglobin A1c, alcohol use (inversely), family history of cardiovascular disease, body mass index, serum creatinine, homocysteine, history of heart failure, history of carotid artery disease and lipoprotein(a) predicted residual ASCVD risk. Niacin treatment status did not enter the model. A C-statistic of 0.59 was obtained, with the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test showing excellent calibration. We developed a risk prediction risk model for predicting 5-year residual ASCVD risk in statin-treated patients with known ASCVD that may help in identifying such persons at the highest risk of recurrent events. Validation in larger samples with patients on high-intensity statin is needed.