Cardiovascular disease (CVD): assessment, prediction and policy implications

Rehman, Shazia; Rehman, Erum; Ikram, Muhammad; Jianglin, Zhang

BACKGROUND: The study aims to predict and assess cardiovascular disease (CVD) patterns in highly affected countries such as Pakistan, India, China, Kenya, the USA, and Sweden. The data for CVD deaths was gathered from 2005 to 2019. METHODS: We utilized non-homogenous discrete grey model (NDGM) to predict growth of cardiovascular deaths in selected countries. We take this process a step further by utilizing novel Synthetic Relative Growth Rate (RGR) and Synthetic Doubling Time (Dt) model to assess how many years it takes to reduce the cardiovascular deaths double in numbers. RESULTS: The results reveal that the USA and China may lead in terms of raising its number of deaths caused by CVDs till 2027. However, doubling time model suggests that USA may require 2.3 years in reducing the cardiovascular deaths. CONCLUSIONS: This study is significant for the policymakers and health practitioners to ensure the execution of CVD prevention measures to overcome the growing burden of CVD deaths.