Author: Bhalchandra S Pujari; Snehal M Shekatkar
Title: Multi-city modeling of epidemics using spatial networks: Application to 2019-nCov (COVID-19) coronavirus in India Document date: 2020_3_17
ID: hxuyaany_21
Snippet: Although the spread of epidemic on spatially extended systems is a well studied area, the majority of models are either computationally expensive since they consider individuals and interactions between them, or too coarse-grained to account for spatial migrations. Here we have proposed a novel approach that addresses both these issues, and offers fast and realistic predictions that are useful for policy-makers and health personnels. Our hybrid a.....
Document: Although the spread of epidemic on spatially extended systems is a well studied area, the majority of models are either computationally expensive since they consider individuals and interactions between them, or too coarse-grained to account for spatial migrations. Here we have proposed a novel approach that addresses both these issues, and offers fast and realistic predictions that are useful for policy-makers and health personnels. Our hybrid approach to SIR model with well-mixed intra-city populations and intercity coupling based on transportation network lets us predict the course of ongoing pandemic of COVID19 coronavirus in India. The forecasts based on our model indicate that within 90 days of the start of the epidemic, All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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