Estimation of the probability of reinfection with COVID-19 coronavirus by the SEIRUS model

Alexander Okhuese Victor

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20050930 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 2 : Chart of the rate of reinfection of the recovered compartment from COVID-19 Figure 1 , clearly shows that the infectious rate will continue to rise steadily over a long period of time and there after begin to slide in a normal trajectory if no vaccine is in place. However, with the various make shift treatment, social distancing and quarantine strategy being adopted the recovery rate will keep rising slowly but steadily over a long period of time. Therefore, as the recovery rate continues to grow steadily the number of recovered population who have been clinically declared free of the virus by the Polymerase Chain Reaction test will be also declared un-infectious as long as the virus is completely cleared from their system (see Figure 2 ) and the rate of detection will vanish, making the rate of secondary infection 0 = 0 as long as the incidence rate = 0.