Estimation of the probability of reinfection with COVID-19 coronavirus by the SEIRUS model

Alexander Okhuese Victor

Furthermore, numerical simulations were carried to complement the analytical results in investigating the effect of the implementation of quarantine and observatory procedures has on the projection of the further spread of the virus globally. Result shows that the proportion of infected population in the absence of curative vaccination will continue to grow globally meanwhile the recovery rate will continue slowly which therefore means that the ratio of infection to recovery rate will determine the death rate that is recorded globally and most significant for this study is the rate of reinfection by the recovered population which will decline to zero over time as the virus is cleared clinically from the system of the recovered class.. However, unless there is a dedicated effort from individual population, government, health organizations, policy makers and stakeholders, the world would hardly be reed of the COVID-19 coronavirus and further spread is eminent and the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery until a curative vaccine is developed. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.