The impact of age demographics on interpreting and applying population-wide infection fatality rates for COVID-19

MacLeod, M. R.; Hunter, D. G.

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affects the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) and its members in multiple ways. As the CAF manages its own healthcare system for its members, it must consider the impact of COVID-19 not only on the operational effectiveness of its workforce but also on its healthcare operations. Furthermore, given that the CAF has deployed task forces in support of other government departments, including into long-term care facilities that are experiencing outbreaks, it is important for the CAF to maintain situational awareness of the outbreak in the Canadian population generally. In providing analytical support to the CAF on these questions, we focused on establishing the applicability of estimates of COVID-19 infection fatality rates (IFRs) from the literature to the CAF and to the Canadian public. This paper explores how the age-dependent effects of COVID-19 must be taken into account when comparing estimates based on countries with very different age profiles, such as China and Italy. Furthermore, it explores how varying age structures within a country (e.g., within a subnational jurisdiction, or within a given working population) should affect how analysts apply estimates of IFR to scenarios involving those specific populations. Copyright: © 2021 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, Department of National Defence