Variable step-size evolving participatory learning with kernel recursive least squares applied to gas prices forecasting in Brazil

Queiroz, Eduardo Ravaglia Campos; Alves, Kaike Sa Teles Rocha; Cyrino Oliveira , Fernando Luiz; Pestana de Aguiar , Eduardo

A prediction model is an indispensable tool in business, helping to make decisions, whether in the short, medium, or long term. In this context, the implementation of machine learning techniques in time series forecasting models has a notorious relevance, as information processing and efficient and dynamic knowledge uncovering are increasingly demanded. This paper develops a model called Variable step-size evolving Participatory Learning with Kernel Recursive Least Squares, VS-ePL-KRLS, applied to the forecast of weekly prices for S500 and S10 diesel oil, at the Brazilian level, for biweekly and monthly horizons. The presented model demonstrates a better accuracy compared with analogous models in the literature, without loss of computational performance for all time series analyzed.