Modeling the Spread and Outbreak Dynamics of Avian Influenza (H5N1) Virus and Its Possible Control

Rao, V. Sree Hari; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar

Avian Influenza, commonly known as Bird Flu, is an epidemic caused by H5N1 Virus, that primarily affects birds such as chickens, wild water birds, ducks, and swans etc. On rare occasions, pigs and humans will also be affected with this virus In recent years this epidemic has emerged as a major global health concern. The present chapter is aimed at developing mathematical models that predict the spread and outbreak diversity of low pathogenic avian influenza virus. Essentially, we present (1) a deterministic mathematical model which deals with the dynamics of human infection by avian influenza both in birds and in human, (2) a discrete dynamical model for the spread of H5N1, and (3) the statistical transmission model of bird flu taking into account the factors that affect the epidemic transmission such as source of infection and social and natural factors.