The changing patter of COVID-19 in China: A tempo-geographic analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

Weiming, T; Huipeng, L; Gifty, M; Zaisheng, W; Weibin, C; Dan, W; Rongbin, Y

BACKGROUND: Evaluating whether an infectious disease has reached a turning point is important for planning additional intervention efforts. This study aimed to analyze the changing patterns and the tempo-geographic features of the COVID-19 epidemic, to provide further evidence for real-time responses. METHODS: Daily data on COVID-2019 cases between 31(st) Dec. 2019 and 26(th) Feb. 2020 were collected and analyzed for Hubei and non-Hubei regions. Observed trends for new and cumulative cases were analyzed through joint-point regressions. Spatial analysis was applied to show the geographic distribution and changing pattern of the epidemic. RESULTS: By 26(th) Feb. 2020, 78,630 confirmed COVID-19 cases had been reported in China. In Hubei, an increasing trend (slope=221) was observed for new cases between 24(th) Jan. and February 7(th) Feb. 2020, after which a decline commenced (slope=-868). However, as the diagnosis criteria changed, a sudden increase (slope=5530) was observed on 12(th) Feb., which sharply decreased afterward (slope=-4898). In non-Hubei regions, the number of new cases increased from 20(th) Jan. to 3(rd) Feb. and started to decline afterward (slope=-53). The spatial analysis identified Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Changsha, Nanchang, Wenzhou, Shanghai, Xinyang, Jining, and Beijing as the hotspots outside of Hubei province in China. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: The joint-point regression analysis indicated that the epidemic might have been under control in China, especially for regions outside of Hubei province. Further improvement in the response strategies based on these new patterns is needed.