Author: Giovani L. Vasconcelos; Antônio M. S. Macêdo; Raydonal Ospina; Francisco A. G. Almeida; Gerson C. Duarte-Filho; Inês C. L. Souza
Title: Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: 35b3efom_2
Snippet: In this stark context, it becomes relevant to have simple models for the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemics, so as to be able to obtain estimates -however tentative-for the rise in the number of infected people as well as in the number of fatal cases, both in the near and in the more distant future. Such estimates are, of course, prone to high uncertainty: the less data available and the further in the future, the greater the uncertainty. Notwit.....
Document: In this stark context, it becomes relevant to have simple models for the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemics, so as to be able to obtain estimates -however tentative-for the rise in the number of infected people as well as in the number of fatal cases, both in the near and in the more distant future. Such estimates are, of course, prone to high uncertainty: the less data available and the further in the future, the greater the uncertainty. Notwithstanding their inherent shortcomings, simple mathematical models provide valuable tools for quickly assessing the severity of an epidemics and help to guide the health and political authorities in defining or adjusting their national strategies to fight the disease [3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10] .
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