Author: Svetoslav Bliznashki
Title: A Bayesian Logistic Growth Model for the Spread of COVID-19 in New York Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: lhv83zac_23
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https: //doi.org/10.1101 //doi.org/10. /2020 We see that this time the model accurately predicts two consequent data points and fails to predict the third. This is still not a satisfactory performance, however, and hints towards the possibility that the actual process exhibits steeper rise than the one suggested by the model. In the same way, it appears that the HDIs are not wide enough in order to accommo.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https: //doi.org/10.1101 //doi.org/10. /2020 We see that this time the model accurately predicts two consequent data points and fails to predict the third. This is still not a satisfactory performance, however, and hints towards the possibility that the actual process exhibits steeper rise than the one suggested by the model. In the same way, it appears that the HDIs are not wide enough in order to accommodate the actual uncertainty.
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