Author: Jamieson-Lane, Alastair; Blasius, Bernd
Title: Epidemic Arrival Times; Theory, Discussion, and Limitations Cord-id: 8qn0p2nr Document date: 2020_4_12
ID: 8qn0p2nr
Snippet: The rise of the World Airline Network over the past century has lead to sharp changes in our notions of `distance' and `closeness' - both in terms of trade and travel, but also (less desirably) with respect to the spread of disease. Using flight data from the WAN, along with a drastically simplified epidemic model, we are able to predict epidemic arrival times, for arbitrary initial conditions, in a computationally efficient manner. Our framework provides some theoretical justification to the `e
Document: The rise of the World Airline Network over the past century has lead to sharp changes in our notions of `distance' and `closeness' - both in terms of trade and travel, but also (less desirably) with respect to the spread of disease. Using flight data from the WAN, along with a drastically simplified epidemic model, we are able to predict epidemic arrival times, for arbitrary initial conditions, in a computationally efficient manner. Our framework provides some theoretical justification to the `effective distance' originally introduced by Brockmann \&Helbing (2013), however we also observed that the predictive power of such heuristics is significantly lower than previously reported. Further improvements to our framework allow predictions to be made, even in parameter regimes where past methods are known to fail, and illuminate the circumstances under which this class of methods can be expected to fail.
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