Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 containment strategies with considerations for limited medical resources

Brydon Eastman; Cameron Meaney; Michelle Przedborski; Mohammad Kohandel

The unfortunate reality is that in no cases were social distancing policies sufficient to keep the ventilator demand of the first wave below the current capacity of the respective provincial healthcare systems. With proper social distancing policies, it is possible to restrict the size of the second peak to below the current capacity, but these cases involve a potentially optimistic vision of the levels of public adherence to social distancing guidelines for a long period of time. Fortunately, the increased need for ventilators has been recognized by government officials and the Canadian government has announced the production of 30,000 new ventilators to combat the pandemic. Assuming these ventilators are divided among the provinces proportionally based on population, we can assess whether this number is sufficient to handle the anticipated demand. Looking at Figure 5 , the increased ventilator capacity significantly increases the likelihood that a social distancing strategy will be able remain beneath the capabilities of the health care system.