Multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model for COVID-19 -- a revisit to Singapore's case

Hanshuang Pan; Nian Shao; Yue Yan; Xinyue Luo; Shufen Wang; Ling Ye; Jin Cheng; Wenbin Chen

The Fudan-CCDC model [9, 8, 12] was proposed by Cheng's group at Fudan University to study the evolution of COVID-19. The model took advantages of the time delay process introduced by the TDD-NCP model [13, 4, 3, 6, 7, 11] proposed previously also by Cheng's group, and developed new convolution kernels for the time delay terms by applying several time distributions acquired from an important paper [5] by CCDC (China Center for Disease Control and Prevention). Both the TDD-NCP model and the Fudan-CCDC model are single-chain models, and have been performed well in analyzing the evolution of COVID-19 in China, and its early stage of global transmission [10, 14] . Since Mar 2, some of the simulation results on South Korea, Iran, Italy, Germany, Spain, the U.S. et al have been posted on Twitter @fudan ccdc.