Author: Michal Ben-Nun; Pete Riley; James Turtle; David P. Bacon; Steven Riley
Title: National and Regional Influenza-Like-Illness Forecasts for the USA Document date: 2018_4_27
ID: cheiabv0_18
Snippet: Early in the flu season, before the ILI curve takes off, this fitting can result in peak 193 intensities that are significantly larger/lower than expected (based on historic values) 194 and/or peak weeks that are inconsistent with past values. One way to constrain the 195 predictions, which has been used by others [28, 29] , is to use an informed prior (IP)......
Document: Early in the flu season, before the ILI curve takes off, this fitting can result in peak 193 intensities that are significantly larger/lower than expected (based on historic values) 194 and/or peak weeks that are inconsistent with past values. One way to constrain the 195 predictions, which has been used by others [28, 29] , is to use an informed prior (IP).
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