Mathematical recipe for curbing coronavirus (COVID-19) transmition dynamics

Gudu, Emmanuel Bala; Wisdom, Daniel Dauda; Joseph, Grace Gudu; Ahmad, Mohammad Aminu; Isaac, Samson; Akinyemi, Ebenezer Ajayi

Mathematical model for the transition dynamics and control of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria has been proposed for incorporating the impact of vaccination and prevention. The endemic equilibrium state and the effective reproductive number (R(0)) was obtained and used to find the best recipe for curbing the rate of transmission of the disease. Using the Nigerian demographic data, numerical simulation results showed that 20% coronavirus vaccination when applied in coverage of active individuals is better than 75% preventive individual's usage on limiting the spread of COVID-19. In addition, the results also showed that vaccinating 30% of active individuals are better ways of curbing the disease than vaccinating 75% of individuals that are not infected with the virus as shown by the calculated ratio and the simulation results, respectively.