Author: Nicholas Gray; Dominic Calleja; Alex Wimbush; Enrique Miralles-Dolz; Ander Gray; Marco De-Angelis; Elfride Derrer-Merk; Bright Uchenna Oparaji; Vladimir Stepanov; Louis Clearkin; Scott Ferson
Title: No test is better than a bad test"": Impact of diagnostic uncertainty in mass testing on the spread of Covid-19 Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 2jwuzfan_42
Snippet: Two evaluations have been conducted. The first using the stated government goal of 100,000 tests per day (left graphs in figure 4 ). It remains unclear whether this aim is feasible, or if this testing capacity would include both forms of tests (antibody and active virus). The second evaluation looks at a very optimistic case where we could conduct as many as 150,000 tests per day (right graphs in figure 4 ). The authors draw no conclusions about .....
Document: Two evaluations have been conducted. The first using the stated government goal of 100,000 tests per day (left graphs in figure 4 ). It remains unclear whether this aim is feasible, or if this testing capacity would include both forms of tests (antibody and active virus). The second evaluation looks at a very optimistic case where we could conduct as many as 150,000 tests per day (right graphs in figure 4 ). The authors draw no conclusions about the feasibility of achieving these levels. However the authors do wish to encourage caution that with a capacity for testing of the order targeted by the UK government, testing in isolation is not sufficient to allow any rapid cessation of the current social distancing measures without a resurgence of the virus. This caution is irrespective of test performance, even very good tests with a sensitivity of 98%, and effective isolation of cases that have tested positive, the outcome is broadly invariant.
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