Next weeks of SARS-CoV-2: Projection model to predict time evolution scenarios of accumulated cases in Spain

TONI MONLEON-GETINO; Jaume Canela-Soler

This projection offered by function is based on a consistent statistical growth model, used previously in biology [4, 5, 6] and can allow authorities and epidemiologists to predict cases and take measures of them, as well as to know the approximate dates for the best and worst scenarios. This method is based on the extrapolation rarefaction curve using a Weibull growth model [4, 5] to estimate the maximum number of accumulated cases of coronavirus as a function of time (days) using numerical methods for non linear models. This approach allows us to compute the effort at different confidence intervals and to obtain an approximate time interval of when the disease will slow its speed in terms of the number of cases accumulated. This would also be possible for the number of new affected and for cases in which patients recover.