Author: Bassett, Bruce A
Title: Strict Lower Bound on the COVID-19 Fatality Rate in Overwhelmed Healthcare Systems Cord-id: cmjzst9v Document date: 2020_4_27
ID: cmjzst9v
Snippet: The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for COVID-19 is a poorly known, yet crucial, aspect of the disease. Counting only current deaths in a region and assuming everyone in that region is infected provides an absolute lower bound on the IFR. Using this estimator for New York City, Lombardy and Madrid yields strong bounds on the average IFR in overwhelmed health systems. Their combined 35,152 deaths implies IFR > 0.14% averaged over 25.1 million people. This is the best-case scenario and conclusively
Document: The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for COVID-19 is a poorly known, yet crucial, aspect of the disease. Counting only current deaths in a region and assuming everyone in that region is infected provides an absolute lower bound on the IFR. Using this estimator for New York City, Lombardy and Madrid yields strong bounds on the average IFR in overwhelmed health systems. Their combined 35,152 deaths implies IFR > 0.14% averaged over 25.1 million people. This is the best-case scenario and conclusively demonstrates that COVID-19 is more deadly than influenza. The actual value of the average COVID-19 IFR is likely to be higher than this bound.
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