Closure of Anchor Businesses Reduced COVID-19 Transmission During the Early Months of the Pandemic

McHugh, Megan; Tian, Yao; Maechling, Claude R; Farley, Diane; Holl, Jane L

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship between the closure of "anchor businesses" - manufacturing plants and distribution centers employing >1,000 workers and the daily, county-level COVID-19 rate between March 1 and May 31, 2020. METHODS: We conducted a comparative, interrupted time series analysis of publicly available county-level data. Our main variable of interest was closure, indicating whether one or more of the anchor businesses within the county experienced a full or partial a closure of at least 22 days (main analysis) or at least one day (sensitivity analyses). RESULTS: Closure of an anchor business was associated with 142 fewer positive COVID-19 tests per 100,000 population over a 40-day period. Even short-term and partial closures were associated with reduced spread. CONCLUSIONS: Temporary closure of anchor businesses appears to have slowed, but not completely contained, the spread of COVID-19.