Evaluation of the potential incidence of COVID-19 and effectiveness of contention measures in Spain: a data-driven approach

Alberto Aleta; Yamir Moreno

Our model has several limitations and some of them could actually be overcome in the near future. Perhaps the most important one has to do with the inability of current large-scale epidemiological models to fully account for behavioral changes in the population when a disease is evolving. As it is the case for the spreading of COVID-19, the information −and more often than desired, misinformation− travels faster than the disease. This produces undesired effects such as a collapse in the emergency rooms at hospitals, a proliferation of information sources that do not provide sensible advices in all cases, anticipated economic loses and, in general, uncoordinated responses. Therefore, it is a pressing challenge to develop more realistic ways to incorporate in models like the one employed here all these risk-averse responses and reactions. Another limitation of the current study includes the relatively low spatial resolution, which is essentially determined by the data availability. The results however indicate that the level of granularity used here is enough to capture mobility patterns and the effects of possible interventions. Finally, we have not considered the temporal and spatial variability of disease parameters, nor other potentially important characteristics of the host population such as the existence of super spreaders or the age structure, which seems to play a relevant role for this disease, at least in what concerns the case fatality rate. We plan to investigate on all these issues in the near future.