A vulnerability-based approach to human-mobility reduction for countering COVID-19 transmission in London while considering local air quality

Sasidharan, Manu; Singh, Ajit; Eskandari Torbaghan, Mehran; Parlikad, Ajith Kumar

An ecologic analysis was conducted to explore the correlation between air pollution, and COVID-19 cases and fatality rates in London. The analysis demonstrated a strong correlation (R2>0.7) between increment in air pollution and an increase in the risk of COVID-19 transmission within London boroughs. Particularly, strong correlations (R2>0.72) between the risk of COVID-19 fatality and NO2 and PM2.5 pollution concentrations were also found. Although this study assumed the same level of air pollution across a particular London borough, it demonstrates the possibility to employ air pollution as an indicator to rapidly identify the vulnerable regions within a city. Such an approach can inform the decisions to suspend or reduce the operation of different public transport modes within a city. The methodology and learnings from the study can thus aid public transport to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak by adopting different levels of human-mobility reduction strategies based on the vulnerability of a given region.