Evidence that higher temperatures are associated with lower incidence of COVID-19 in pandemic state, cumulative cases reported up to March 27, 2020

Michael Triplett

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051524 doi: medRxiv preprint Binned confirmed cases and case rates plotted by temperature ( fig. 4) showed increased growth patterns in ranges below 22.5 o C, and a downward trend could be seen in case rates as temperatures increase to the same point. Above 22.5 o C, case rates remained near-zero. It should also be noted that high-growth regions appeared to be warming between March 14 and 27, but case rates remained near-zero in regions above 22.5 o C during that time. Slight growth was observed above that temperature, but rates are significantly slower. Multiple linear regression of confirmed cases by population and temperature, for data reported March 27, 2020, showed a significant relationship between population and mean maximum temperature at the assigned latitude, with reported pvalues <0.000 for both predictors and the constant. Residual values and distribution also indicated a good fit for the model. However, R 2 of 26.52% showed that the model could only explain a small portion of low-level variance.