Author: Jonathan M Read; Jessica RE Bridgen; Derek AT Cummings; Antonia Ho; Chris P Jewell
Title: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions Document date: 2020_1_24
ID: mt8h4rk5_2
Snippet: • improved likelihood function, better accounting for first 41 confirmed cases, and now using all infections (rather than just cases detected) in Wuhan for prediction of infection in international travellers; • improved characterization of uncertainty in parameters, and calculation of epidemic trajectory confidence intervals using a more statistically rigorous method; • extended range of latent period in sensitivity analysis to reflect repo.....
Document: • improved likelihood function, better accounting for first 41 confirmed cases, and now using all infections (rather than just cases detected) in Wuhan for prediction of infection in international travellers; • improved characterization of uncertainty in parameters, and calculation of epidemic trajectory confidence intervals using a more statistically rigorous method; • extended range of latent period in sensitivity analysis to reflect reports of up to 6 day incubation period in household clusters; • removed travel restriction analysis, as different modelling approaches (e.g. stochastic transmission, rather than deterministic transmission) are more appropriate to such analyses.
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