Clinical, laboratory, and temporal predictors of neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 after COVID-19.

Boonyaratanakornkit, Jim; Morishima, Chihiro; Selke, Stacy; Zamora, Danniel; McGuffin, Sarah; Shapiro, Adrienne E; Campbell, Victoria L; McClurkan, Christopher L; Jing, Lichen; Gross, Robin; Liang, Janie; Postnikova, Elena; Mazur, Steven; Chaudhary, Anu; Das, Marie K; Fink, Susan L; Bryan, Andrew; Greninger, Alex L; Jerome, Keith R; Holbrook, Michael R; Gernsheimer, Terry B; Wener, Mark H; Wald, Anna; Koelle, David M

BACKGROUND SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies may protect from reinfection and disease, providing the rationale for administration of plasma containing SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies (nAb) as a treatment for COVID-19. The clinical factors and laboratory assays to streamline plasma donor selection, and the durability of nAb responses, are incompletely understood. METHODS Adults with virologically-documented SARS-CoV-2 infection in a convalescent plasma donor screening program were tested for serum IgG to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein S1 domain, nucleoprotein (NP), and for nAb. RESULTS Amongst 250 consecutive persons studied a median of 67 days since symptom onset, 243/250 (97%) were seropositive on one or more assays. Sixty percent of donors had nAb titers ≥1:80. Correlates of higher nAb titer included older age (adjusted OR [AOR] 1.03/year of age, 95% CI 1.00-1.06), male sex (AOR 2.08, 95% CI 1.13-3.82), fever during acute illness (AOR 2.73, 95% CI 1.25-5.97), and disease severity represented by hospitalization (AOR 6.59, 95% CI 1.32-32.96). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of anti-S1 and anti-NP antibody results yielded cutoffs that corresponded well with nAb titers, with the anti-S1 assay being slightly more predictive. NAb titers declined in 37 of 41 paired specimens collected a median of 98 days (range, 77-120) apart (P<0.001). Seven individuals (2.8%) were persistently seronegative and lacked T cell responses. CONCLUSIONS Nab titers correlated with COVID-19 severity, age, and sex. Standard commercially available SARS-CoV-2 IgG results can serve as useful surrogates for nAb testing. Functional nAb levels were found to decline and a small proportion of COVID-19 survivors lack adaptive immune responses.